A cycling jaunt
One of my pastimes and outlets is cycling along rail trails. They are peaceful and you get a chance to see some amazing Australian countryside.
I recently rode to Mansfield in Victoria along what is called ‘The Great Victorian Rail Trail’. There is some spectacular scenery and impressive engineering feats, the chief amongst them being the bridge across the Eildon Dam at Bonnie Doon (How’s the Serenity!).This trip made me reflect on the demographic changes that have occurred in the region and divergent patterns of population growth in these two centres over time.
Understanding regional growth
To provide context to the nature of regional growth in Australia, let us first discuss what typically drives regional growth.
Over the past twenty years, population growth in Metropolitan Areas in Australia has tended to outpace regional areas. However, many regional areas in Australia have experienced significant population growth due to factors such as:
- ‘Overspill’ from Metropolitan Areas (into the so-called ‘peri-urban areas’).
- Increased concentration of employment, investment and services (often in larger regional centres).
- Environment and lifestyle factors.
This latter component has shaped growth in areas on Australia’s coast, such as the Sunshine Coast in Queensland, Busselton in WA or Victor Harbor in SA, as well as areas some inland areas such as Mudgee in NSW or along the Murray River on the NSW-Victoria border.
Where the story starts
Population growth
In the mid-1970s, the population of Mansfield and Alexandra was very similar, with just over 1,900 persons in Mansfield and a little more than 1,800 persons in Alexandra. Over the past four decades, population growth has occurred in both locations, but Mansfield has consistently widened the gap.
Economic factors
Both towns have played a traditional small to medium service-centre role, providing commercial, retail and government, as well as health and aged care services for residents in town and from the rural hinterland. Both towns benefit from the economic activity (predominantly tourism) around Lake Eildon, but Mansfield also benefits from its proximity to Mount Buller.
Compared to Mansfield, the economy of Alexandra is more focused on primary industries and manufacturing, as well as featuring a higher share of the workforce in health care. In contrast, Mansfield has a greater share employed in tourism industries (accommodation and food services; rental hiring and real estate services), as well as mining, professional, scientific and technical services and transport, postal and warehousing.
Diverging paths
Despite their similar start, Mansfield has experienced small, but notable increases in almost all industry sectors over the period from 2006 to 2021, especially in the health and education area, as well as in construction, public administration and safety.
By contrast, Alexandra has experienced notable growth in construction and health care and social assistance jobs, as well as other smaller increases in other service industries. However, many sectors have seen minor decreases over this period, notably manufacturing, retail trade and accommodation and food services. The timing of the 2021 Census at the tail end of the pandemic may have had some bearing on job growth in retail and accommodation, but there is a very different pattern of employment change, when comparing the two towns.
As Mansfield and Alexandra are outside the commuting range of Melbourne and are too small to be considered ‘regional centres’ (and they are not especially close to larger regional centres), their population growth reflects local economic opportunities and leveraging of their natural assets. So why exactly has Mansfield taken off relative to Alexandra?
Mansfield's development
There are several factors that favour population growth in Mansfield over Alexandra:
- Mansfield is the main service centre for Mount Buller. The mountain is the closest ski resort to Melbourne and attracts a vast number of visitors throughout the year, creating employment opportunities for potential residents and building familiarity with the area. Overall, this potentially makes it more attractive to those seeking to relocate for a different lifestyle.
- Mansfield is the dominant focus for investment in its region. All the small towns in Mansfield Shire are too small to be counted as ‘urban areas’ in the census (fewer than 200 persons). By contrast, Alexandra has much larger settlements nearby that ‘compete’ for investment and jobs and provide competing rival services, such as Yea (pop. 1,279) and Eildon (pop. 725).
We see these attributes play out in the large number of arrivals from Melbourne, which in turn contributes to investment in the area, leading to impacts such as significantly higher house prices compared to Alexandra.
Implications on demographic profile
Population growth impacts an area’s demographic profile in different ways, and this case provides a particularly stark, yet interesting comparison.
The high country tends to attract older adults and retirees, especially from Melbourne and the rural surrounds. As such, large increases in ages 55 and over have occurred in both the towns over the past twenty years.
However, the main difference between the trends in the two towns relates changes in the younger age groups. There was a solid increase in family age groups (0-14 and 25-44 years) in Mansfield between 2006 and 2021, while Alexandra had minor decreases in these ages. This reflects the broader migration profile of those coming to Mansfield.
Postscript
Alexandra has seemingly been cast as the unfortunate actor in this play, but a bit of context, please. The township of Alexandra has still increased its population by an average of 1.2% per annum since 1996. Other towns in the greater region, such as Benalla, Seymour and Euroa have experienced lower rates of growth over the period. Only Yea has grown at similar rate during this period. This analysis highlights how geographically attractiveness and investment is able to shape the trajectory of a town’s growth.
On a personal note...
The journey along the Rail Trail from Yea to Tallarook can be a lonely one, with few people along the way. However, on one of my trips, who should I see but one of my former colleagues and accomplished demographic analyst, Simone Alexander. What a pair of nerds we are!