Client: Department for Infrastructure and Transport, Adelaide on behalf of Aurecon
Services Provided
- Applied forecasting
- Local area population forecast and modelling
- Residential land use analysis
Background
Aurecon Mott MacDonald Joint Venture (AMJV) was engaged by the State Government to review the medium-series of the population projections for the Adelaide – South and Adelaide Hills Population Projection Regions (PPR). These projections were being used to inform work on the Torrens to Darlington Project (T2D), which w isthe final stage in completing the North-South Corridor from Gawler to Old Noarlunga.
The initial basis for the AMJV adjustments to population projections was that the population growth in Southern Adelaide in the initial medium-series projections falls below trend during the outlook period to rates below historical levels. In addition, the AMJV noted that not all land supply in the south of Adelaide was assumed to be utilised during the outlook period to 2041. Given that the southern suburbs of Adelaide were identified to be areas of primary benefit from the construction of the T2D project, any potential underestimation of population in this region would have strongly correlated to a lower value of the project.
AMJV’s proposed approach and methodology for this project was questioned by the Project Steering Committee, which contributed to a call for a peer review.
The Project
The Department for Infrastructure and Transport (DIT) approached DS to prepare the peer review. DS was asked to examine the methodology, approach and analysis undertaken by AMJV to adjust the State Government population projections for Southern Adelaide.
How was Demographic Solutions Involved?
- DS liaised with AMJV and the State Government in order to understand the methodology and key assumptions used by both parties before conducting the peer review.
- The data gathering and analysis process primarily included DS collating information on historical population, dwelling changes from the Census for Adelaide and Southern Adelaide (2001-2016), dwelling approval information and ABS estimates since 2016. This was then used to assess the State Government’s population projections for Greater Adelaide.
- DS also assessed AMJV’s critique of projections, their approach and the methodology enlisted to adjust these projections to provide validation and revisions for key assumptions and scenarios.
Results
- Prior to submitting the peer review, DS conducted a working session with both AMJV and key representatives from the State Government to discuss preliminary findings from the data analysis. This provided all stakeholders involved the opportunity to discuss the methodology undertaken in greater detail and highlight any concerns with the approach.
- A draft report was then compiled with relevant charts, tables and maps and sent for feedback from clients before the finalised report was presented.