We have already looked at Victoria, now its time for the Premier State. NSW LGAs have experienced varying rates of growth, with lots of population gain in the greenfield growth areas of Sydney and in the Hunter.
The overall rate of population growth in NSW was very strong from 2016 to 2021 (7.9%), but not all LGAs across the state benefited from the large overseas migration gain that preceded the COVID-19 pandemic. The fastest growing LGAs in percentage terms between 2016 and 2021 were mainly on the fringe of Sydney, as well as Newcastle and Canberra, where greenfield development predominates. Camden LGA was the fastest growing LGA in NSW to 2021. It grew by an astonishing 52.6% or more than 41,100 persons. The largest net gain was in Blacktown at just under 60,000 persons.
Although most grew coastal areas grew strongly to 2021, the highest rate of growth was in Byron LGA. The fastest growing LGA in the established parts of Sydney were Parramatta and Strathfield. See table below.
Top 10 Growth LGAs by rate, NSW, 2016-2021
Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing, 2016 and 2021
Most LGAs in Sydney had population growth, although the fastest rates of gain were on the fringe. The growth in these areas was driven by high rates of greenfield residential development in new estates, with Camden, The Hills and Blacktown at the forefront of growth to 2021. Population growth was far more subdued in the inner areas of Sydney, especially in areas where population growth is heavily associated with tertiary education exports. Randwick’s population decreased by more than 6,400 persons (-4.6%), while Sydney’s population grew by only 1.6%, a vast drop from the 22.9% between 2011 and 2016.
Areas with significant redevelopment precincts and new apartment development, such as Ryde, Parramatta, Bayside and Strathfield grew strongly between 2016 and 2021. Their growth was underpinned by new apartment construction in places such as Macquarie Park, Parramatta CBD, Mascot and Homebush West amongst others, In general terms, growth in inner city areas was moderate, with the effect of border closures, both internationally and domestically having a strong impact on growth rates. See map below.
Population growth, Greater Sydney LGAs and surrounds, 2016-21
Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing, 2016 and 2021
Most of the population growth in Regional NSW was along the coastal fringe and around major inland centres. Coastal population growth in NSW has been on the wane over recent Censuses, reflecting a declining number of prime residential development opportunities along the coast and the rising cost of property in these areas. It is likely that coastal growth was boosted between 2016 and 2021 because of the large holiday home stock, which were occupied at a much higher rate due to the ongoing effects of the pandemic in August 2021. The highest rates of growth were in Byron and Ballina in the north, Port Macquarie-Hastings in the Mid-North Coast. See map.
Population growth in Queanbeyan-Palerang, Maitland and Cessnock was at higher rates between 2016 and 2021 due to ‘overspill’ growth from Canberra and Newcastle respectively. Many inland centres, such as Dubbo, Tamworth, Bathurst, Orange, Goulburn, Griffith and Wagga Wagga, continued to expand at strong levels despite challenging times for their rural hinterlands over the previous 5 years. See map.
Population growth, Regional NSW LGAs, 2016-21
Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing, 2016 and 2021
The other notable growth area in Regional NSW was along the Murray River. The gains were in and around the larger centres, such as Albury and Corowa (Federation) and on the NSW side of large Victorian centres (Echuca and Mildura), boosting growth in Wentworth and Murray River LGAs.
There was also notable population loss in the interior north and west. Drought conditions were particularly severe in the wheatbelt of NSW from 2017 to 2019, creating enormous pressure on the farming sector and small towns of this region. While conditions have improved since 2020, recovery is unlikely to turn around population loss in the short term.
The Murray River region and coastal areas may have had their growth boosted to 2021, due to the higher occupancy of holiday and temporary rental stock. It will be interesting to see the effects of a potential drift back to Sydney from 2022 onwards, following the removal of restrictions in the economy and society and a return to office work and on-campus schooling. It is more than likely that growth in these areas will moderate from 2021 to 2026 and growth in inner Sydney will return.
Stay tuned for more stories from the 2021 Census and our quick fire series on LinkedIn.