Client: Sydney Catholic Schools & .id (informed decisions)
Services Provided
- Local area population forecasting (demographics and macroeconomic factor analysis)
- Network planning and catchment analysis
Background
Sydney Catholics School (SCS) network comprises of some 150 Catholic primary and secondary schools operating across the Archdiocese of Sydney, providing more than 70,000 students with high-quality, low-fee Catholic education. With COVID-19 causing significant structural changes to the Australian population and community at large, SCS needed a thorough understanding of the extent to which the pandemic impacted multiple demand drivers – including growth in the size of the school age population in certain areas, changing population densities across the Diocese and trends in the propensity for children to attend a Catholic school. Pre-empting the size and distribution of demand was crucial to SCS in order to have an appropriately sized school network that can respond to changes in the community at the right place and at the right time.
The Project
Demographic Solutions was engaged by .id to advise Sydney Catholic School (SCS) on potential growth opportunities, outlining the impact COVID-19 would have on each of the SCS’s 14 defined school networks’ current and future enrolment patterns. Meant to provide an additional level of corroboration, our findings were used as a point of comparison against SCS’s existing forecasts conducted prior to COVID-19.
How was Demographic Solutions Involved?
- DS produced an in-depth analysis on the SCS’s current enrolment patterns, geographic barriers and the existing infrastructure networks within and around the defined school networks by leveraging .id’s Small Area Forecast Information tool.
- Based on our latest COVID-adjusted population forecasts, DS measured the impact of the pandemic on factors like migration, size and distribution of school age population, and Catholicity across the Archdiocese to understand the expected differentiation in previously predicted growth patterns.
- DS carried out a high-level overview to advise on current and future enrolment trajectory levels across each of the 14 school networks. This was inclusive of detailed breakdowns of primary and secondary school age population growth, Catholic population and broader demographic factors that are important in discerning the future viability of each of the school networks and the overall school network-based market share.
Results
- The findings were presented in a comprehensive PDF PowerPoint report comprising of ancillary maps, data tables and succinct insights outlining salient differences between SCS’s internal forecasts and DS’s analysis.
- DS mapped arrivals of overseas Catholics and Orthodox as well as their major net migration moves across the Archdiocese to help SCS locate potential areas of opportunities and possible pain points in future enrolment trajectories. COVID-adjusted forecasts in enrolment growths on a school catchment level for both primary and secondary school networks were clearly outlined for SCS to engage in evidence-based decision-making when considering network expansion and resource allocation.
- DS also provided the underlying data and assumptions to SCS for perusal and further internal analysis.