Pandemic Impact on Student Enrolment Forecasts | SCS Case Study
At a glance
- Client: Sydney Catholic Schools (via .id)
- Scope: Student enrolment forecasts and school network demand drivers
- Horizon: 2021–2041 Enrolment Trajectories
- Deliverables: GIS-mapped spatial analysis and evidence-based reporting suite.
Objective
Demographic Solutions was commissioned to develop student enrolment forecasts for the Sydney Catholic Schools (SCS) network. Comprising 150 primary and secondary schools across the Archdiocese of Sydney, SCS provides high-quality education to over 70,000 students. Following significant structural changes to the Australian population, SCS required a rigorous assessment of how the pandemic impacted key demand drivers—including school-age population growth, changing densities across the Diocese, and shifts in the propensity for Catholic school enrolment. Delivering robust student enrolment forecasts was crucial to ensuring the network remains appropriately sized and responsive to community changes at the right place and time.
What we did
- Student Enrolment Forecasts: Developed COVID-adjusted population projections to measure pandemic impacts on migration and the distribution of school-age cohorts.
- Network Catchment Analysis: Leveraged Small Area Forecast Information (SAFI) to assess current enrolment patterns and geographic barriers for 150 primary and secondary schools.
- Market Share Modelling: Analysed “Catholicity” and propensity trends to discern the future viability of each of the 14 defined school networks.
- Infrastructure Strategy: Provided a high-level overview of enrolment trajectories to assist SCS in evidence-based decision-making for network expansion.
Outcome & Impact
Demographic Solutions delivered a comprehensive suite of student enrolment forecasts supported by GIS-enabled mapping, detailed data tables and strategic analysis. By comparing internal SCS data with our COVID-adjusted models, we provided spatial insights that mapped migration and overseas arrivals to identify specific growth opportunities and enrolment risks. These granular student enrolment forecasts for primary and secondary catchments provided the evidence-based certainty required for network expansion and resource allocation, while the provision of all underlying datasets ensured SCS could perform deeper internal analysis for long-term infrastructure planning.
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