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Population Forecast Model: City of Whittlesea Case Study

Detailed micro-area geographies map used for the City of Whittlesea population forecast model and infrastructure prioritisation.

At a glance

  • Client: City of Whittlesea
  • Scope: Bottom-up granular population forecast model for Whittlesea Infrastructure Prioritisation Tool
  • Horizon: 2016–2051
  • Deliverables: Customisable GIS-enabled forecasting model, methodology report and user guide.

Project Objective: Integrated Residential Capacity & Population Forecast Model

Demographic Solutions developed a custom population forecast model for the City of Whittlesea to underpin Council’s Infrastructure Prioritisation Tool. The objective was to unify strategic planning by converting greenfield development insights into detailed, micro-area projections. We delivered a dynamic system that allows Council staff to update supply assumptions and perform scenario testing, ensuring service provision remains responsive to community shifts.

What we did

  • Custom Forecasting Architecture: Developed a bottom-up population forecast model for 2016–2051, allowing for real-time adjustments to demographic and supply assumptions.
  • Residential Capacity Analysis: Integrated greenfield development staging and housing demand insights to produce high-accuracy baseline projections.
  • Small Area Geography Design: Defined precise micro-area geographies to enable granular output and interrogation within Council’s infrastructure framework.
  • Stakeholder Engagement: Facilitated technical workshops and methodology demonstrations to align the model with Council’s internal data management standards and strategic goals.

Strategic Outcome: Population Forecast Model for Strategic Council Planning

Delivered a robust, evidence-based planning tool that provides Council with the autonomy to run varied development scenarios. By bridging the gap between raw Census analysis and infrastructure requirements, the model provides the certainty needed for long-term capital works and policy development. The framework is designed for longevity, with base data architecture ready for 2021/2026 Census integration.

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Acknowledgement of Country

Demographic Solutions respectfully acknowledges the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples as the First Australians and the Boonwurrung / Bunurong and Wurrundjeri Woi Wurrung peoples of the Eastern Kulin Nation as Traditional Owners of the land and  acknowledge and respect their continuing connection to culture and country. 

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