Population Projections Peer Review: T2D Adelaide Project
At a glance
- Client: Department for Infrastructure and Transport (DIT) SA / Aurecon
- Scope: Independent Peer Review of population projections for the Torrens to Darlington (T2D) project.
- Horizon: 2021–2041 Strategic Outlook.
- Deliverables: Technical Peer Review report, methodology validation, and inter-agency stakeholder workshops.
Project Objective: Independent Population Projections Peer Review
Demographic Solutions was engaged by the South Australian Government to conduct a formal peer review of adjusted population projections for the Torrens to Darlington (T2D) infrastructure project. Tasked with examining the methodology used by the Aurecon Mott MacDonald Joint Venture (AMJV), we provided an objective assessment of growth assumptions for Southern Adelaide and the Adelaide Hills. Our goal was to ensure the project’s valuation and infrastructure planning were based on the most accurate, evidence-based demographic data available.
What we did
- Methodology Validation: Conducted a rigorous audit of the AMJV critique and the State Government’s medium-series population projections to resolve discrepancies in growth trends.
- Longitudinal Data Synthesis: Collated 15 years of Census data (2001–2016), building approval records and ABS estimates to benchmark historical dwelling changes against future outlooks.
- Residential Land Use Analysis: Assessed land supply utilisation in Southern Adelaide to determine if projected growth rates aligned with historical capacity and the primary benefits of the North-South Corridor.
- Methodological Alignment: Led technical workshops with AMJV and State Government stakeholders to reach consensus on data assumptions and secure an evidence-based framework for the population projections peer review.
Strategic Outcome: Evidence-Based Infrastructure Validation
Demographic Solutions delivered a definitive peer review that clarified the population projections required for the $15.4bn T2D project. By resolving methodological questions and validating residential land use assumptions, we provided the State Government with the “planning certainty” needed for the final stage of the North-South Corridor. This project underscores our role as a trusted arbiter in complex, high-stakes infrastructure forecasting.
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