Provide Population and Dwelling Forecasts for Water Infrastructure Planning
At a glance
- Client: South‑East Water (utility)
- Scope: Catchment‑wide population forecasts + Residential Supply Layer (RSL)
- Horizon: 2026–2071
- Deliverables: Independent water infrastructure population forecasts, validated residential supply capacities/timeframes, overspill timing & scale.
Objective
Provide SEW with independent micro level population and dwelling forecasts to guide short and longer term planning and staged water infrastructure delivery across the South East Water catchment. As part of the project, DS independently validated the State Government’s Population Forecasts (VIF 2025) to 2071.
What we did
- Liason and cross-checking: Collaborated with Spatial Economics and internal stakeholders to validate capacities and development timeframes for all residential sites and estates, and to revise capacity assumptions for unplanned but zoned areas, including key Activity Centres.
- Integrated policy & GIS: Incorporated the most up‑to‑date State Government policy settings and Precinct Structure Plans, and assembled an up‑to‑date, GIS‑enabled RSL for established areas.
- Long term housing opportunities: Provided an updated version of residential development assumptions in the South East Water catchment to 2071, focusing on changes to development in the greenfield areas. This also highlighted a number of areas that had the potential to be rezoned in the coming decades which would have a marked impact on infrastructure build and servicing.
- Linked to demand: Produced a revised, granular set of population forecasts (2026–2071), explicitly linking demographic drivers (migration, fertility, development sequencing) to water service demand and service delivery implications for six business units.
- Benchmarked to State Government: Reviewed and benchmarked to VIF 2025 assumptions and stress‑tested impacts on growth distribution across the South East Water catchment area.
Outcome & Impact
Water infrastructure demand forecasting delivered a defensible, scenario‑tested outlook and an authoritative Residential Supply Layer. We quantified the timing and magnitude of population overspill beyond Melbourne’s Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) and produced 2026–2071 small‑area forecasts, enabling South‑East Water to prioritise investment, stage infrastructure and support planning across six business units.
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